I’ve been aggressively shopping for the dip since March 2020, after I wrote How To Predict A Inventory Market Backside Like Nostradamus. My daughter was born 4 months earlier, and one thing inside me clicked, pushing me to speculate aggressively for her future in an more and more troublesome world.
Since then, I’ve continued to purchase nearly each significant dip (2%+) as a result of I stay bullish on America, synthetic intelligence, customers’ insatiable urge for food to spend as a substitute of save, and financial insurance policies designed to maintain voters completely happy so politicians can keep in energy.
On the similar time, expertise has taught me an essential lesson: you will be proper long run and nonetheless be incorrect within the brief time period when you purchase the dip too typically and too early.
When Shopping for the Dip Turns into a Senseless Behavior
Whereas updating an older submit from March 2022 about how your retirement withdrawal fee will decline throughout bear markets, I got here throughout a graphic that jumped out at me. The picture reveals how steadily I used to be shopping for the dip through the first quarter of that yr. It was fascinating and a bit of humbling.
2021 had been an outstanding yr +26%, after a +16% 2020 for the S&P 500. After two straight years of wholesome positive aspects, it felt unnatural for shares to start out correcting in 2022. It was as if buyers had collectively forgotten that shares typically go down.
Because the market declined in early 2022, I started shopping for VTI repeatedly. February was notably powerful, each for the market and for my investing psyche. I stored shopping for, and the market stored falling. Wanting again on the chart, I counted not less than 14 separate dip purchases in simply that one month.
The joy of shopping for shares at two to 5 % reductions shortly pale when the S&P 500 went on to fall one other 20+ % from peak-to-trough! Shopping for the dip felt good emotionally, as if I used to be doing one thing about shedding cash, however the timing was removed from preferrred.
In the end, I ought to have unfold out my dip shopping for in 2022 over an extended time frame. That is essential context as a result of as we begin 2026, we’ve had three consecutive years of double digit positive aspects within the S&P 500. And the identical factor might occur once more with a lot nervousness round valuations and geopolitical uncertainty.
Don’t Purchase Too Aggressively Too Quickly
I’m pretty assured there can be one other 10 % plus correction in 2026. When that point comes, you wish to have sufficient money to make the most of it. The issue is that significant corrections typically take months to completely play out. In the event you deploy an excessive amount of capital early, you might end up watching costs fall additional with out sufficient dry powder left.
In early 2022 alone, I purchased the dip greater than 35 instances within the first quarter. Regardless of that, the market continued to say no. The lesson was clear: preliminary pullbacks are sometimes just the start when valuations are elevated or when coverage uncertainty is rising.
As soon as markets determine valuations are too costly or that company revenue expectations have to be reset, it could possibly take a number of quarters of earnings studies for sentiment to shift.
Administration groups want time to regulate steering and methods. That course of doesn’t occur in a single day, which is why small three to 5 % pullbacks shouldn’t be handled as once-in-a-cycle alternatives.
How Lengthy Corrections and Bear Markets Normally Final
Traditionally, a typical 10 % correction lasts about three to 4 months from peak to trough. Some resolve sooner, whereas others stretch out longer relying on financial situations and coverage responses.
Bear markets, outlined as declines of 20 % or extra, are extra extended. On common, bear markets final roughly 9 to 14 months. Some are brief and violent, whereas others grind decrease over a number of quarters.
This issues as a result of shopping for too aggressively early in a downturn can depart buyers underprepared for later, extra enticing alternatives.
A easy strategy is to take your projected money move and current money pile and divide it over three to 14 months to ascertain a baseline month-to-month funding quantity. In the event you want to speculate weekly, you may divide the overall by twelve months, or roughly fifty two weeks, to reach at a gradual weekly contribution.
Considering in quarters as a substitute of days helps. Quarterly earnings are when actual adjustments in sentiment, steering, and technique happen. In between, you might be largely reacting to noise.
And sure, that is technically market timing, which fits in opposition to the standard recommendation of shopping for and holding for the long run. However the reality is, each funding determination includes some type of timing. Don’t idiot your self into pondering you aren’t dollar-cost averaging or timing the market, since you are.
Valuations Matter Extra Than Most Buyers Admit
From the start of 2023 to the top of 2025, the market rose near 80 %. After a run like that, a significant correction shouldn’t be shocking.
Right now, the S&P 500 remains to be buying and selling round 22.5 instances ahead earnings. Traditionally, when the ahead value to earnings ratio has exceeded 23 instances (or 30 instances trailing), the next 10 yr annualized returns have ranged from roughly minus 2 % to plus 2 % per yr. That may be a far cry from the double digit returns many buyers have come to anticipate.
If valuations had been to revert towards a long run common nearer to 18 instances earnings, a 20 % or higher correction wouldn’t be unreasonable. This is the reason valuation context issues when deciding how aggressively to purchase dips.
The excellent news is that many people had been pondering this in the beginning of 2025, when the ahead P/E was additionally round 22X. But we nonetheless loved a double digit return as S&P 500 earnings grew by about 16.5 % earlier than dividends. The unhealthy information is that the chances of one other double digit return going ahead are decrease.
Make Certain You Have Ongoing Money
Wanting forward, 2026 is a midterm election yr. Traditionally, midterm years are likely to expertise increased volatility because of coverage uncertainty. Now there’s heightened geopolitical uncertainty as effectively.
Given this backdrop, buyers ought to keep not less than 5% of their portfolio in money, and probably nearer to 10%. With money yields nonetheless north of 4 %, the chance price of holding money is comparatively low, particularly in comparison with the flexibleness it supplies throughout market corrections.
Shopping for the dip has labored extremely effectively over the previous decade, particularly in periods of aggressive financial help and fast technological progress. I stay optimistic about the long run trajectory of the U.S. economic system and fairness markets. Nonetheless, optimism doesn’t remove the necessity for self-discipline when valuations are stretched and markets have delivered years of outsized positive aspects.
The hot button is to not cease shopping for the dip altogether, however to tempo your self. Corrections and bear markets are likely to unfold over months, not days. By pondering in quarters, respecting valuations, and preserving sufficient money readily available, you give your self flexibility. Flexibility is what permits you to keep calm and opportunistic.
Construct wealth steadily with out working out of ammunition too early.
Reader Questions
- How a lot money do you presently preserve in your funding portfolio, and has that proportion modified as valuations have risen?
- Do you purchase each dip routinely, or do you scale in based mostly on valuation, time, or market sentiment?
- How do you concentrate on shopping for dips to your youngsters’s funding accounts throughout lengthy bull markets?
Diversify Your Wealth Past Shares and Bonds
One solution to keep away from shopping for the dip too early or too typically is to broaden the place you make investments. Shares and bonds are foundational, however when valuations are excessive and volatility rises, relying solely on equities could make timing errors pricey.
That’s why I put money into actual property, which provides earnings potential and diversification with out forcing you to react to each market pullback. Fundrise permits passive funding in residential and industrial properties throughout the Sunbelt, the place valuations are usually decrease and rental yields increased.
Fundrise additionally supplies publicity to non-public AI corporations like OpenAI, Anthropic, Anduril, and Databricks, serving to steadiness a portfolio with out chasing short-term strikes.
I’ve personally invested over $500,000 with Fundrise. With a $10 minimal, it’s a straightforward solution to diversify whereas staying disciplined throughout risky markets. Fundrise is a long-time sponsor as our funding philosophies are aligned.
Be a part of over 60,000 readers and subscribe to my free Monetary Samurai e-newsletter to remain knowledgeable and disciplined. Since 2009, I’ve shared insights to assist readers develop wealth, achieve freedom, and make smarter long-term monetary selections.
Background: I’ve been investing in equities since 1996, together with 13 years within the trade at Goldman Sachs and Credit score Suisse. Right now, I handle an eight-figure funding portfolio that helps present for my household. I maintain a BA from William & Mary and an MBA from Berkeley. In 2009, I helped kickstart the modern-day FIRE motion with the launch of this web site.
